About the Bitcoin Cycle Clock
The Bitcoin Cycle Clock is a rules-based Bitcoin market-cycle dashboard. It describes cycle position and the conditions that would change the reading.
Winston is the automated analyst voice behind the daily brief, associated with @winston_polaris.
What is active on the dashboard?
Daily price, MA200, stretch, valuation, momentum, holder cohorts, altcoin relative performance, miner context and the halving clock. The same market inputs give the same signal readings; freshness is checked separately at build time.
How it reads a Bitcoin top
The displayed Top Watch has four classes: valuation, momentum/euphoria, holder-cohort distribution, and altcoin relative performance. Tier 1 describes a cohort distribution zone; Tier 2 describes a model-defined near-high zone with uncertain early detection; Tier 3 flags a close below MA200. These are complementary readings, not guarantees that a top will or will not occur. The gate and Tier 3 show the trend rule’s state: a daily close below the 200-day average switches it to defensive, a close above 1.05 × that average switches it back, with at least ten closes between switches. It describes the rule, not any reader’s position.
How it reads a Bitcoin bottom
Valuation, cohort capitulation and the Puell multiple describe historical bottom configurations. Recovery confirmed means no new 30-day low for at least 30 days, price at or above MA50, and at least 20% recovery from the 90-day low. That condition alone does not establish cheapness or confirm a cycle floor.
Why 2021 can have distribution and momentum divergence
Tier 1 measures holder-cohort distribution. The historical momentum table measures how early momentum intensity peaked relative to price. In 2021, the cohort signal was present and momentum peaked 20 days before price. Calling both dimensions simply loud or quiet hid this distinction; the table now uses convergent and divergent.
Where are we now?
As of 2026-11-02, BTC is $76,681, above its 200-day trend and -38.6% from the last all-time high. Top-zone watch: only 1/4 matrix classes elevated (DOMINANCE) — no confluence, so no distribution signal yet. See the dashboard for the full breakdown and source dates.
What is research context rather than a live vote?
The wider research programme also examines perpetual-futures funding, long/short ratios, liquidations, Fear & Greed, stablecoin supply, hash ribbons and macro data. Collection or monitoring does not make a feed an active Top Watch vote. Historical Fear & Greed statistics appear as reference context; leverage, stablecoin and macro feeds are not additional votes in the displayed four-class Top Watch.
Dates and freshness
The price observation date, build timestamp and indicator dates are distinct. Cohort data can lag price by several days. The dashboard lists calendar-day feed ages against the UTC build date and each feed’s configured limit. Unreadable and future-dated observations are reported separately from stale data. A cached page is a snapshot, not a live health monitor; within limit does not mean same-day data.
Research references and limits
These are summaries of the historical research referenced by the dashboard, not a new validation. Sample sizes are small and in-sample coverage does not establish reliable future exclusion. The identifiers let readers distinguish the underlying questions.
R-DRAWDOWN-TYPOLOGY-001
Historical collapse peaks averaged 3.0 of four elevated classes versus 1.5 at correction peaks. This is a descriptive comparison at highs, not a guarantee about the next drawdown.
R-COHORT-EXIT-POLICY-001
The cohort distribution zone first fired months before the sampled tops. Treating first activation as a full exit did not outperform the plain MA200 rule in the recorded test; a zone marker is not an exit trigger.
R-BOTTOM-CAPITULATION-RULEOUT-001
Deep cohort capitulation appeared at three sampled cycle bottoms and not at four sampled tops. That small historical record does not prove that every future bottom must exhibit it.
R-QUIET-TOP-BASE-001
The base-growth comparison reports higher realized-price growth around historical loud tops than quiet tops. Absolute growth changes across eras; this comparison does not determine the next top type.
Principles
- Fixed rules: published signal conditions, with no discretionary daily calls.
- Accept uncertainty: a handful of historical cycles cannot prove that a reversal is impossible.
- Make dates visible: a new page build does not make an old observation new.
For education and research. Historical frequencies are not predictions. Nothing here is financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell an asset.