As of 2026-11-02.
BTC is $76,681 — back above its 200-day trend ($73,149, +5%), still -39% from the last cycle high of $124,824 and +31% off the $58,525 correction low.
Stretch is 1.05× (percentile 41) — no extension; stretch at successive price peaks has compressed every cycle (5.7×→1.2×), so this is a low-amplitude recovery, not a blow-off.
Top-zone watch: only 1/4 matrix classes elevated (DOMINANCE) — no confluence, so no distribution signal yet.
Breadth/dominance: alts are outperforming BTC (risk-on rotation) — worth noting, not a top alone.
What would change it: cautious if cohort + valuation join dominance above the 70th on a new high (class confluence, not a proven quiet-top detector).
Trend rule: RISK-ON since 2026-08-20; it switches to defensive on a daily close below $73,149.
Source dates: holder-cohort signal 2026-10-31; cohort distribution 2026-10-31; breadth/dominance 2026-11-02. These observations can lag the price date; an absent signal does not rule out a reversal.
Day 926 of ~1458 (64% through this halving cycle). Last halving 2024-04-20, next estimated 2028-04-17. IN the projected pre-halving bottom window. Timing is context only (four cycles) — not a prediction.
Patterns from history, not predictions. Educational, not financial advice.